Having coffee with a client of mine we began discussing the markets and the directions they will take. Clearly I have absolutely no idea, however we began to discuss the effects of outside forces on the markets and what matters.
Politics!
Woa! Wait just a minute ... three things you are never to discuss Politics Religion and Finance! Yea well, I do, and I will continue, and yes I have been burned by doing so and generally, no, I don't think its a good idea to discuss these items. REASON? People are closed minded in general and will not indulge in outside opinions readily until credibility is obtained. Then we have to define credibility, and that is impossible as some folks give credibility because they found it on google, some because they heard it directly from a supreme being, some because of a piece of paper that said that person is schooled, some because they have letters after their name, you get my point. Hence generally do not talk about the three no no's unless you have gained credibility from the person in which you speak.
I am passionate about politics! There I said it, but I am passionate about what politics will do to my life than I am about who is doing it and why. I will not tell you that one direction is the correct direction I will however argue until I am blue in the face if policies are written or discussed that take my opportunity to either make, keep, or compound my money or effect my freedoms to spend it or not spend it. I call my political views Polinomics and I will get into that in another post. Sadly the rest of the country votes on Emotionamics. (Emotional Politics).
I diverge, back to the meat and potatoes. I am going to tell you right now an indicator to which direction the election will take. SOLAR POWER. That is the answer!* Solution to your either fears or dreams! If you watch the markets there are quite a few solar power companies, the investment in these companies are politically charged and have been rumored to be profitable only due to tax credits.
Let me back up just a little bit, a friend of mine owns a very profitable solar company, this is why I have some vested interest in the industry. I want to see my friends succeed, he is an overwhelming success already, however I fear his company may be in valuation jeopardy because of Politics. In discussing this friend with another mutual friend, he said it best, "the multiples for these solar companies are 10x where if the republican party takes office they will drop to 5x." We could be vastly wrong, however if correct the Politics could take away half of my friends company's worth overnight, hence why I pay attention to Politics. Think about it, my friends profitability may not change, his paycheck may not change, but his "net worth" could be split in half. This is why Politics are so important, and also why I am so charged by it!
Therefore, a pill that you simply need to swallow is that markets trade about 18 months in advance to "news" (read Ken Fishers "Debunkery") thus I believe 18 months in advance to the election solar companies will either maintain their multiples or will begin to loose their premium multiple pricing.
*This made me laugh out loud, as I wrote it, I'll probably get 3% rise in hits on my blog because of "Solar power. That is the answer."
Politics!
Woa! Wait just a minute ... three things you are never to discuss Politics Religion and Finance! Yea well, I do, and I will continue, and yes I have been burned by doing so and generally, no, I don't think its a good idea to discuss these items. REASON? People are closed minded in general and will not indulge in outside opinions readily until credibility is obtained. Then we have to define credibility, and that is impossible as some folks give credibility because they found it on google, some because they heard it directly from a supreme being, some because of a piece of paper that said that person is schooled, some because they have letters after their name, you get my point. Hence generally do not talk about the three no no's unless you have gained credibility from the person in which you speak.
I am passionate about politics! There I said it, but I am passionate about what politics will do to my life than I am about who is doing it and why. I will not tell you that one direction is the correct direction I will however argue until I am blue in the face if policies are written or discussed that take my opportunity to either make, keep, or compound my money or effect my freedoms to spend it or not spend it. I call my political views Polinomics and I will get into that in another post. Sadly the rest of the country votes on Emotionamics. (Emotional Politics).
I diverge, back to the meat and potatoes. I am going to tell you right now an indicator to which direction the election will take. SOLAR POWER. That is the answer!* Solution to your either fears or dreams! If you watch the markets there are quite a few solar power companies, the investment in these companies are politically charged and have been rumored to be profitable only due to tax credits.
Let me back up just a little bit, a friend of mine owns a very profitable solar company, this is why I have some vested interest in the industry. I want to see my friends succeed, he is an overwhelming success already, however I fear his company may be in valuation jeopardy because of Politics. In discussing this friend with another mutual friend, he said it best, "the multiples for these solar companies are 10x where if the republican party takes office they will drop to 5x." We could be vastly wrong, however if correct the Politics could take away half of my friends company's worth overnight, hence why I pay attention to Politics. Think about it, my friends profitability may not change, his paycheck may not change, but his "net worth" could be split in half. This is why Politics are so important, and also why I am so charged by it!
Therefore, a pill that you simply need to swallow is that markets trade about 18 months in advance to "news" (read Ken Fishers "Debunkery") thus I believe 18 months in advance to the election solar companies will either maintain their multiples or will begin to loose their premium multiple pricing.
*This made me laugh out loud, as I wrote it, I'll probably get 3% rise in hits on my blog because of "Solar power. That is the answer."
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